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I'm going to take the Bearcats in this game in what should be another action packed Thursday night battle. A few interesting story lines here with the Bearcats starting their back up QB, who broke the school record a week ago for passing yards and he did it in 3 quarters. Hayden Moore will be just fine and has many weapons that can beat Miami's defense. Meanwhile Miami is undefeated and coming off a bye, but has Florida State up next.
I believe Cincinnati will struggle on defense here for sure, but I believe they will get Miami into enough 3rd down scenarios to win this game. Avoid giving up the big plays and the Bearcats win this game outright. If I lose this game ATS it's because Miami has big play after big play which is obviously quite possible. Miami has been actually pretty dreadful when they get into 3rd down scenarios converting around 25% with none of their 3 games going over 30% success. Cinci stopped them on 3 of 10 last year, but still lost. However, 5 of the 6 TD's for Miami last year are no longer on the team or hurt. This game is also at on the road for Miami which tends to make a pretty significant difference. The same third down issues have carried over to the red zone where Miami has had issues getting TD's, and again that's where Cincinnati can and will win this game.
The perception on Cincinnati is they are a bad 2-2 team, but they could easily be 2-0. They have to avoid the turnovers that have plagued them and I think Hayden Moore could be the answer as Gunner Kiel threw 5 interceptions when he played. The Bearcats have won 27 conescutive non conference games at Nippert Stadium and Moore and the offense will go up against a Miami secondary that will be without 2 safeties for the first half because of targeting. Miami allowed 50% in their only road game on third down and that was to Florida Atlantic who played without their star dual threat QB.
Bottom line neither team can put pressure on the QB and the offenses should be the stories. I think 3 reasons to like this play. 1. we are getting a TD to work with (shop around), 2. we have the home field advantage, and 3.) There is no way that Miami players have not been looking ahead to Florida State during their bye week. If you want to add a few other reasons Al Golden is not the best coach here he has not done well after bye weeks and Miami is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
