To me this game is simple. Which team can stop the run and turn the other into a one dimensional team and to me at least the answer is obvious North Carolina. Both teams are quite similar with talented defensive lines and talented sophmore QB's, but the injury to Henry Josey from Missouri went down it was a huge loss as he was averaging over 8 yards per carry. Missouri hasn't been the same. When they played Kansas at the end of the year they averaged just 3.5 ypc on 47 carries and Kansas was last in the nation in run defense from a ypc statistic allowing 6.1.
North Carolina has more of a power running game with Giovani Bernard ranked 23rd nationally with 102 yards per game. Last year Missouri got gashed by a power running game in their bowl game and while I think they're more equipped to stop it this year I think they'll have a better day on the ground than Missouri. Missouri is ranked 40th in ypc allowed while North Carolina is ranked 15th. This game should be put into the hands of both talented sophmore QB's in Bryan Renner and James Franklin.
Their numbers are very similar and they'll both face struggling pass defenses in UNC 90th in yards allowed, Missouri 91st. Renner however is the guy I'm taking as he's much more accurate #1 in the ACC 68.8% compared to Franklin 63.3%. Renner plays with the poise of an upperclassman and Missouri lacks a true field stretcher with most of their throws coming under neath dinking and dunking where UNC can take some chance to make stops. Meanwhile Renner has Dwight Jones - 6-4 225 who had 79 receptions 1119 yards and 11 TD's. Renner is also averaging 1.3 more yards per attempt. Which QB will have more success in the red zone? To me again advantage to the Tarheels.
UNC and Missouri both got to the red zone similar amount of times. Missouri 51 times and UNC 46 times, but Missouri converting 64% into TD while UNC at 72%. Defensively UNC again holding the advantage allowing 4 less attempts this season and holding opponents to 10% less TD's 45 to 55% in the red zone. This is a huge advantage considering both teams were just 60% on field goals this year. In the end both teams are pretty even. UNC is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a dog while Missouri is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on neutral fields. Missouri won't have as much of an advantage here and I think they under estimate UNC's skill expect some talented match ups and one of the better played bowls of the young bowl season.
