Both of these teams are pretty even although the statistical ratings might not show it this will be a defensive game despite Iowa State on paper being ranked 99th overall. Iowa State has faced 4 top 10 offenses this year and 6 top 20 teams. Meanwhile Rutgers has faced 1 top 20 team and gave up 41 points to them. Yankee Stadium is where this game is but Iowa State has been poised on the road all year long they came east and defeated Uconn a common opponent that Rutgers lost to 22-40 in the last week of the season. That was an emotional loss because Rutgers was playing for a chance at the Big East crown but lost and it's been a long time since that game, but I think it's still hurting. Meanwhile Iowa State is just thrilled to be here and have had a great year including an upset of Oklahoma State.
Let's talk rushing offense and defense. Clearly this is where this game is headed considering both QB's are among the worst in the nation in pass efficiency offense and Iowa State rarely wants to pass the ball considering Rutgers makes most of their game changing plays when teams drop back to pass. Since Rutgers is vulnerable in run defense I think that's where they will attack. They allowed 3.86 on the season but 4.34 on the road and gave up chunks to teams that really never were good at running the ball all year and it came at the end of the year. Louisville 102nd 3.3 ypc on the year ran for 5.5 ypc, WV 80th 3.8ypc on the year ran for 5.68 and North Carolina earlier in the year ran for 4.55ypc and they are ranked 72nd. Iowa State has capable runners and a talented offensive line to run behind they are ranked 36th in rushing yards and came on strong at the end of the year rushing for 215 yards against a Kansas State run defense that is statistically better than Rutgers. Rutgers meanwhile had one of the worst rushing offenses on the year 2.62 ypc and Iowa State is more vulnerable their so I expect Rutgers to really have a balanced attack because they will have more luck running the ball as Iowa State's pass defense is the real deal.
Iowa State can match up with Mohammed Sanu they have talented LB to help on the short routes and CB Leonard Johnson should do a good job here. On the road this year they held opponents to 53.9% on the road 6 TD and 8 interception I think you will see a hesitant Rutgers team to really open up the passing game considering they were barely over 50% on the year as far as pass completion %. Another reason why I'm liking the under in this game. Add in the fact that both teams play great on 3rd down and in the red zone on defense and the incapable offenses I feel it's a great way to see the under.
3rd down defense Iowa State is 38.33% and remember the offenses they faced, While Rutgers 33% facing mediocre offenses. Offensively Iowa State is much better 42.33% which is another reason I give them the edge to win the overall game because Rutgers is 37%. The same holds up in the red zone. Both teams getting their similar amount of times 48 and 46 attempts Rutgers 54% TD's and Iowa State 58%. Defensively Rutgers has allowed 46.15% while Iowa State allowed 48%, but over their last 4 games allowed just 26.6% vs. some solid opponents.
