Uconn has won all of the last 5 meetings between these two teams but they have been the home team for much of this series lately. The home team is actually 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings which gives Syracuse an advantage.
Things to know:
Both teams rely on their defense. Both are in the top 20 in ypc run defense and both are in the top 10 in sack %. Uconn likes to run the ball more than pass while Syracuse has been traditionally a pass first offense led by senior Ryan Nassib.
Uconn:
Uconn is off a crushing loss to Temple and once agai the issues was with their defense. QB Chandler Whitmer has been under pressure all year leading to 10 interceptions and tonight will be no different with Syracuse being 10th in sack%, but improving drastically when they are inside the Carrier Dome with a 13.33% sack %. On defense the Huskies have benefited largely on defense from facing teams that just do not have an aerial attack. Syracuse is 16th in yards per game passing and throw the ball 61% of the time. While Uconn has been good against the pass they have done it against an average passing offense ranked 79th. They did go on the road to play Western Michigan who is 26th in passing play % and they lost 24-30. Both teams should fall to the passing game because both teams are so good at stopping the run and that advantage immediately turns to Syracuse.
Syracuse:
At home their offense has been dangerous this year, but facing Uconn should provide a stiff task. Uconn is 8th in sack %, but then again Syracuse has protected Nassib at home allowing him to get sacked just 3.03% of his drop backs. He also has two of the most prolific receivers in Syracuse history in Marcus Sales and Alec Lemon. Lemon had 9 receptions and 157 yards in last years loss. The thing that has cost Syracuse a .500 or winning record has been mistakes and turnovers as well as an inconsistent running game. However, being back at home with more experience Iâm confident they have a significant enough of an advantage in this game to win and cover the spread while the total goes under. Uconnâs defensive line is banged up and they are sending LB to get to the QB which Nassib should be able to beat if he has studied tape at all.
Red Zone and 3rd Down Keys:
Syracuse is better in the red zone on offense and defense and being at home only helps that situation more. Offensively they are nothing special with 54% TDâs whiel Uconn has 4 less attempts and 50% TD percentage while just 25% in Big East play. Defensively Uconn is allowing 70% TDâs when opponents get in the red zone which fortunately does not happen often, just 10 times this year, but we mentioned the weak opponent offenses that Uconn has faced which has played a key role in that. In big east play they have been worse allowing 83% of RZ opportunities to turn into TDâs while Syracuse is much tougher allowing 42% TDâs in red zone in Big East play. 3rd downs are very similar, but Syracuse holds an edge on offense as they are 44th and they did it against some good defenses that have an average 47th third down defense while Uconn is 79th and faced an average 53rd ranked third down defense. Defensively Uconn is 12th allowing just 30.36% conversions but on average they faced a third down offense ranked 88th while Syracuse is 71st and faced an average offense ranked 73rd. At the end of the day both rushing attacks have struggled Syracuse 98th, Uconn 117th and both run defenses have been great ranked inside the top 20 so this game will immediately turn to the QB. Neither one have been really impressive. Nassib, 65% 11 TD/ 8 INT, Whitmer 58% 6TD, 10 INT. Syracuse is 123rd in TO margin Uconn is 109th which holds no significant advantage in this game. I like the under because of the importance of this game and the strengths of the defenses. Ultimately Syracuse is home and is healthier on the defensive line and should be able to give the opposing QB more troubles than Uconn can resulting in a big win.
