Baylor is fresh off maybe their biggest upset in program history when they shocked the nation and dominated Kansas State. Texas Tech meanwhile was busy in the road at Oklahoma State turning the ball over 3 times and getting 2 punts blocked and got blown out. This line is inflated because of this. Baylor can not possibly be up for this game even though their bowl hopes are on the line. Not after upsetting Kansas State, something nobody saw happening.
On the flip side Texas Tech remembers what happened last year in this game at Cowboys Stadium where it's played yet again today. Tech had their bowl hopes on the line at 5-6 and they eve knocked RG III out of the game at the half, but Nick Florence took over and they put up 60+ points. Florence is back, but this Texas Tech defense is much better than last year actually ranked 9th in yards allowed. They are also ranked 15th in completion % defense and have only allowed 52% conversions over their last 3. If Tech can find a way to stop the running game they should win this game out right and their players have a ton of motivation to do so after what happened last year.
Baylor has been awful outside of last week and they don't deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in this one. They are 1-4 on the road this year and while this game is on neutral field they won't get the benefit of playing with home field advantage. Baylor has the 122nd ranked pass defense, they allow 71% conversions on the road, they are 119th in sack %, and they are 124th (dead last) in third down defense. Texas Tech has destroyed teams like Baylor in the past, heck Tech even put up 56 points on the road at TCU (Big 12's best defense). I do think Baylor will put up points and have success running the ball, but in the end they'll struggle more punching the ball in the end zone and converting third downs. Tech is better at those two on both sides of the ball and they have a huge emotional and motivational advantage and there is tons of value in the line given how both teams played last week. You have to look at an entire season and Tech is clearly the better team.
