This is where the Rays show off their dominating starting pitching. We were on the wrong side of their first game and now I feel they have all the momentum. It also helps that this team has been playing their last few series like every pitch matters because they were going against tough competition (Rangers/Jays/Yankees/Orioles) while the Indians won their last 10 straight it was against (Twins/White Sox/Astrons and WhiteSox). The Indians have not played a playoff team since August and lost 5 of 6 to Detroit and Atlanta. They have not faced one at home since August 1st when they got swept by the Tigers in 4 games. Indians were very lucky to have an easy schedule down the stretch and they lost 4 of 6 to the Royals another team in the playoff hunt. Facing the Rays is going to be a huge step up in competition. The Indians overall are 7-14 at home vs. playoff teams this year including 1-2 vs. the Rays.
The Rays will send Alex Cobb to the mound who has very good raw numbers including a 3.02 xFIP. His 2.70 ERA on the road and 2.70 ERA at night indicate he can handle this type of pressure. In 3 career starts vs. the Indians he has a 2.69 ERA and has held them to a .230 average and a .607 OPS. Cobb was flat out dominant down the stretch against teams going for the wild card posting a 1.16 ERA while striking out 26 batters and walking only 5 against the Yankees, Orioles, and Rangers. He has a 2.41 ERA in 9 post AS starts and only 140 innings on his arm this season. On 5 days rest he should be fresh and ready to go tonight.
On the flip side the Indians also send out a young pitcher in Danny Salazar who has some of the best raw numbers our there. The guy has been great and has averaged over 96mph on his fast ball. I think those are the reasons we are getting such great value on this play, but Salazar is just a 23 year old rookie who likes to over throw. I don't think he can control his emotions in this setting and he's already given up 7 HR in 52 IP this year despite his skills. There is enough time and tape out there for the Rays hitters to get a good idea on what Salazar will do tonight. Teams have hit Salazar of late (6runs last 2 starts) and I think he's benefited from an easy schedule too. Cleveland is finally getting a major step up in competition something they have not seen in over a month. It will be different when the opponent actually tries to beat you and the Rays are very good at this.
