East Carolina comes off arguably their biggest win in program history of recent memory as they won on the road against North Carolina as a 12.5 under dog dominating 55-31 so of course this spread is going to be inflated regardless. MTSU just lost on the road to UNC and got dominated against BYU last Friday. However, an extra day of rest can only help them and they did lead BYU 10-7 after the first quarter.
East Carolina's defense has played well against the run, but they have not faced a team that has been capable. I'm not saying MTSU is capable but they have shown at times they can beat you with the running game with nearly 300 yards against FAU. East Carolina's real weaknesses are in the secondary as they lack a pass rush and have issues on third down and in the red zone which makes it hard for me to see them as more than a TD favorite. Logan Kilgore is an under rated QB that had 3 tough road games against very good secondaries. He's is due to rebound in this home game as they pass to set up the run.
Meanwhile MTSU's defense has been great forcing 16 turnovers on the year and have been great on third down allowing 34% conversions at home and 28% red zone TD conversion percentage at home. Part of the reason they have been able to force turnovers is the play of the defensive line which will be able to get pressure on East Carolina that is ranked 110th in allowing sacks on 8.47% of drop backs. MTSU has a 11.76 sack % at home this year.
This is a huge in state rivalry game for NC State and Wake Forest, but NC State seems to think they are a bit above it even though they have lost 6 straight games on the road in the match up. Wake Forest has won 4 of those as under dogs and will look to continue that trend on Saturday as they look to turn their season around with a huge win over NC State.
I think Wake Forest is under rated as their defense has played outstanding behind the dominating NG Nikita Whitlock. This defense is 37th in pass defense and 12th in takeaways. Meanwhile NC State's offense has yet been able to get a consistent passing attack going with QB Pete Thomas only throwing for 1 TD and 5 interceptions in the process.
NC State will mostly rely on the run for 60% of their play calls but Wake Forest at home is up to the task to stop the run and should remain in the game most of the way. NC St has yet to go on the road this year and though they played Clemson well on a Thursday night they are a different team on the road with an inexperienced QB against a very under rated defense that needs a win. Wake Forest is capable of moving the ball with a good game plan and NC State is allowing 80% red zone possessions to result in a TD.
