The Dodgers got lucky when Don Mattingly made a bold move starting Clayton Kershaw on 3 days rest for the first time in his career as they had to come from behind and win. Mike Matheny did not panic and push up Wainwright's start instead he started a rookie in Michael Wacha on the road and that's where this series turned around, because now the Cardinals have Wainwright on 5 days rest at home in a decision game. You really have to dive into the stats to realize how good Wainwright has been. First of all you can ignore his struggles that came last year against Pittsburgh as Wainwright clearly was not himself coming off Tommy John. This year in 3 home starts he is 3-0 with 23K's 5BB's with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He's had dominating stuff at home all year long and on 5 days rest he has a 1.50 ERA at home averaging 8 innings pitched over 6 starts. In 11 starts this year on extra rest he has a 1.67 ERA. His cutter and curve ball are just that much better on extra rest and when you look at his last two home starts against the Pirates they managed 0% line drives and 5.6% line drives. That is flat out dominating.
Gerrit Cole is going to be a star in this league, but this just is not the best spot for him. First of all Cole has great numbers on the road and we thank him for that otherwise this spread would be -200. Cole however, has not faced a top 10 team in OPS vs. RHP in any of his road starts and has only faced two all year in Colorado (5.1/3ER) and Oakland (7/2ER). He throws his average 96mph fastball 65% of the time but the Cardinals rarely swing and miss and are #1 in line drive %. This is a gritty Cardinals offense that after seeing Cole already in the series should be able to get to him. Cole has a tERA of 3.79 and opponents have a 24.8% line drive rate. He's pitching on the road against a storied franchise with the weight of the Pirates history of struggles on his back. In the end the Cardinals have the better starter on the bump, the better offense to support him, the home field advantage, and I would say at this point the bullpen is even. I only say that because it's all hands on deck in the post season so you only see the cream of the crop and the Cardinals have some great arms out there. This is a premium price to pay for a game, but I can't help it I like the Cardinals that much here.
