Vegas Mistakes Week #6
UTEP covered over Western Kentucky by 15.5 points in a game that you would not want to watch. Neither team eclipsed 300 total yards and it just goes to show you how far Western Kentucky has fallen without Jeff Brohm. They win the game, but Western Kentucky continues to be one of my favorite fade teams. They do not have a good coaching staff. They open up as huge favorites against his week over Charlote by 16.5 points and we will be looking towards the Charlotte side.

Memphis covered at Uconn by 23 points and put up 70 points. Riley Ferguson had 7 TD's in this game and Memphis did whatever they wanted. It's worth noting that Uconn still had 477 yards in this game and nearly identical yards per play stats, but -3 TO margin. Betting Take: Uconn looks bad right now, but that's the spot I would take them moving forward they area 10 point dog on the road at Temple, a team that clearly does not have the offense that Memphis does. Memphis is a 4 point favorite to Navy this week, who they lost to last year 42-28.

NC State covered the spread over Louisville by 17 points in their upset. Why was Louisville favored? Now 6-5 in their last 11 vs. FBS opponents. This was a premium play for clients this past week and an easy winner on Thursday night. Betting Take: If the oddsmaker's continue to inflate Louisville because of Lamar Jackson we will continue to fade them. Louisville is a 21 point favorite this week against Boston College, but BC does not have the defense they have had in the past. Probably a bad week to fade them. Meanwhile NC State is a 12 point road favorite at Pitt.

Georgia covered over Vanderbilt by 14 points. Georgia now gets into the top 4 and seem like a real threat in the SEC as I have been calling them for a few weeks. Georgia hosts Missouri this week so it will be interesting if they keep their foot on the pedal and cruise to another huge win as 30.5 point favorites. Vanderbilt is a 3 point road dog at Ole Miss, a team that seems to have given up for the season since they have nothing to play for.

Temple covered by 20.5 poitns over East Carolina. Their offense looked to come around in this game with 523 yards. They struggled in the red zone, but they put up 34 points and held East Carolina to under 300 yards of total offense. Temple's improving on both sides of the ball this season and that's a sign of quality coaching. I like the job Geoff Collins is doing here and they have Uconn up here as 10 point favorite which is quite a jump from a couple weeks ago. I think this line is a bit inflated as Uconn just gave up 70 points in a huge loss to Memphis. If I'm not mistaken Uconn will have an extra day to prepare for this one.

Tulane covered over Tulsa by 28 points as Tulsa is not having a good year.
Iowa State with a massive upset over Oklahoma. Covered the spread by 38 points. Looks like we were one week off taking Iowa State over Texas the previous week. Iowa State clearly going to be over rated moving forward and due to a major hang over spot. They are 20.5 point favorites against Kansas this week. They were +1 in turnover margin and played right with one of the best teams in the country with a backup QB. Jacob Park is out indefinitely for personal reasons and after this I don't know if he comes back, but walk on Kyle Kempt was magnificent in his replacement going 18-24 for 343 yards 3 TD's and 0 INT's.

Texas Tech covered over Kansas by 31.5 points against the spread. They were +2 in turnover margin, and had 603 yards of offense with 12 trips into Kansas territory for the game with a 53% success rate! Betting Take: Texas Tech is now ranked! Are you kidding me? They are the #24 team in the nation and go on the road to West Virginia as a 3.5 point dog. I'd lean heavily towards West Virginia this week. Kansas played both of these teams in back to back weeks and looked better against West Virginia for what that's worth. They are a 20.5 point dog at Iowa State.

Bowling Green upset Miami Ohio in a shocker and covered the spread by 24.5 points. This one shocked me because Miami Ohio I have slotted to win the MAC East and get to the championship game. I am shocked at how ad they played, but they must have been really beat up from the Notre Dame game. They allowed 505 yards from Bowling Green, a team that was averaging just a tick over 300. They actually held Notre Dame to less yards on the road the week before. Betting Take: This should give us value moving forward and I think we have it this week Miami Ohio is just a 9.5 point road favorite at Kent State. However, they lost two QB's including their star Gus Ragland. The under is most intriguing depending on what the number comes out at because I don't think Kent State can score more than 10 points.

Akron won 31-3 and covered the spread over Ball State by 28 points. They only outgained Ball State by 7 total yards, but were +3 in TO margin. Ball State moved into Akron territory 4 times, but came away with only 3 points. Betting Take: Akron is still not very good and I would fade them this week only Western Michigan is a 13 point favorite and just played in an exhausting 7 overtime game against Buffalo. For Ball State they get a bye. I would look to back them if they get their QB Riley Neal back this season.

Ohio State flexed their muscles over Maryland still playing with a 3rd string QB. They covered the spread by 18 points. Ohio State will face Nebraska this week and are 24 point favorites on the road. Betting Take: Hard to fade Ohio State right now. Nebraska will take some chances passing in that game and I expect 24 points is too much, but if Nebraska turns it over it won't be. I'll be passing. Maryland will host Northwestern and they are 4.5 point dogs which I don't understand at all. Northwestern has not proven anything the last two weeks. They did face off against Penn State and Wisconsin, but still. Maryland however has been tough to figure out all year and I won't get involved.

South Carolina covered the spread and embarrassed an Arkansas squad that seems to be falling apart. South Carolina won 48-22. This was a misleading final and when you consider South Carolina only outgained Arkansas by 28 yards. Arkansas continues to struggle and turned the ball over for a -4 TO margin. Betting Take: I expect Arkansas to rally around their coach who just moved to the hot seat after the last two weeks. Expect a hard fought effort against Alabama whom they are a 30 point dog against. For South Carolina they will have another home game against another coach on the hot seat in Butch Jones and Tennessee and they are only 2 point favorites. I'd look to back Tennessee possibly that line seems a bit weird.
Florida Atlantic continues to cruise with a 58-28 victory. I was high on this team coming into the season, but picked the wrong time to back them going 0-2 ATS. The cover this spread with ease by 24.5 points. Betting Take: FAU is on a bye now, and I'm not sure how to handle them moving forward when they face off against a conference opponent that is expected to win the conference. It will be interesting to see where the oddsmakers set the number in a match up against Western Kentucky on the road on October 28th.

Army had a very misleading win, but covered the spread by 24 points. They outgained Rice by more than 100 yards. +5 turnover margin took care of the rest. Betting Take: Army a 5 point favorite over Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan is drastically improved dating back to last year, but can they defend the triple option?

Texas A&M covered the spread over Alabama by 17.5 points. The Aggies held Alabama to 355 total yards, and I still feel like Alabama will go down at some point this year. They were fortunate to be playing a one dimensional offense as I don't think the young QB at A&M can throw the ball, more of a runner. A&M also -2 in turnover margin, but this was an interesting game as Alabama finally doesn't cover a road game in the SEC. Betting Take: Alabama hosts Arkansas as a 30.5 point favorite. Might be too much although Arkansas obviously struggled last week, and one has to wonder if they have quite on their head coach? A&M goes into Florida as a 3 point dog in what could be a huge game.

Michigan State covered the spread by 17 points and owns Michigan and Jim Harbough looked pathetic off a bye week. Mark Dantonio continues to shock everyone following last year's poor record. This game was ugly with each team unable to eclipse 300 yards of offense. Michigan State was +5 in turnover margin as this got rainy in the second half. If you are +5 in turnover margin you would expect to win by more than 4 points. Betting Take: Michigan has to find a QB before I'm going to back them. They are 6 point favorites on the road against Indiana who sports a very good defense. I'd lean to the under in that game and the Michigan side (reminds me of Purdue). Michigan State is a dangerous team right now, but I like them in the underdog role. They are now ranked on the road at Minnesota as a 4 point favorite. Minnesota had Purdue beat and there was a lengthy weather delay that resulted in the home team taking over after. The under in that game looked good until a pick six with seconds to go pushed the game over. Congrats to those bettors who are able to take advantage of such lucky situations? That's clearly not something we are able to be as fortunate with.

Washington State covered the spread by 21.5 points and are going to get knocked up quite a bit. Oregon was my POD and I was just flat out wrong. I expected sr. Taylor Allie to start at QB, but they started the freshman Braxton Burmeister who is just awful in his decision making. The offensive play calling was awful. For what it is worth this was a very misleading final at 33-10 despite Washington State never being in doubt. Oregon's defense anchored by Jim Leavitt at DC really held Washington State in check for only 369 yards and 24% success rate. Oregon themselves had just 277 yards and were completely one dimensional which was obvious after the first quarter. Betting Take: I'm looking to fade Washington State. Their defense has been very good, but they haven't faced an offense on the road that could hurt them with the pass and run. I don't know if California is the team that can do it this week, but it may be worth taking them on the money line as they are a 14.5 point dog and well coached on defense.

Nevada covered the spread by 19 points over Hawaii, Hawaii was a trendy pick last week. They outgained Hawaii by 89 total yards in this game and won the turnover margin. The difference was getting their QB back in Ty Gangi who completed 78% of his passes 4 TD's 1 INT. This is a completely different team with Gangi out there. Betting Take: We may be back to thinking that Nevada has betting value. This was a game that was super late and hidden. Already we see Nevada as a 24.5 point underdog at Colorado State this week. Definitely seems like too many points.

San Diego State covered the spread by 21 points over UNLV which was a bit of a surprise. SD State had every opportunity to look ahead to Boise State and they were off a brutal stretch of games, but they flat out dominated. They'll be 7.5 point favorites over Boise this week. Betting Take: I'd look to fade San Diego State as their value is super inflated, but not against Boise State who we are not a fan of. I'll pass on this match up this week. In case you are wondering Boise was only able to put up 300 total yards vs. BYU despite BYU having inability to move the ball.


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