Penn State -3 -120 3.5% play
Penn State will leverage their revenge motivation from last year's 45-37 Big Ten Championship loss to Oregon, channeling that energy into a dominant home performance at Beaver Stadium to secure a win by at least four points. With extra preparation time following a bye week, the Nittany Lions' coaching staff has fine-tuned their elite rushing attack—ranked No. 3 in EPA per rush—to exploit Oregon's adequate but vulnerable run defense, allowing running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton to control the game and cover the -3.5 spread. Quarterback Drew Allar's experience in high-stakes games, including last year's thriller against the Ducks, gives Penn State a steadier edge over Oregon's Dante Moore, enabling efficient drives that build a comfortable lead. The hostile White Out environment and Penn State's defensive front will disrupt Oregon's offense, forcing turnovers and limiting big plays to ensure a victory margin that exceeds the spread.
