Patriots -140 3% play

I have a lot of trust in Vrabel's ability to lead a team.  That's no knock against Pete Carrol who has achieved much more, but the familiarity that McDaniels has as OC for New England, and Drake Maye's mobility and ability to play in poor weather tips this one for me.  In rainy weather Geno Smith's play performance dips quite a bit including +30% increase in turnover worthy plays.  Both teams are going to be focused on running the ball, and I believe the Patriots at home will be able to do a better job of stopping the run under Vrabel.