Iowa +3.5 3.3% play
Iowa is the value play as a +3.5 underdog in this tight Cy-Hawk rivalry, where five of the last nine games were decided by 7 points or fewer, often hinging on field position and turnovers rather than blowouts. Their strengths lie in a veteran offensive line and potent rushing attack (top-25 nationally last year) that can exploit Iowa State's thinner defensive front, giving OC Tim Lester a schematic edge over DC Jon Heacock by controlling the tempo and wearing down the Cyclones late. Defensively, Phil Parker's bend-don't-break unit, which has held opponents under 20 points per game for nine straight seasons, should neutralize ISU's pass-heavy offense and force mistakes from QB Rocco Becht, making the +145 moneyline or +3.5 spread a strong value bet in a projected low-scoring grinder. Iowa State already had to play over in Europe and come back home and now are really feeling confident. This is always a tough and tight game, and I think Iowa is in a better situation here having won 7 of the last 10, and I really like the QB they brought in to run the offense this year.
