Pitt -6.5 1.1% Free play 

Small play here with PItt starting their walk on thid string QB. I think Narduzzi would like to win a bowl game actually, and going up against Toledo and their HC who is 1-6 in bowl games is a good opportunity.  Both of these teams play fast so the -6.5 is not a crazy #.  Toledo did not impress me thi syear.  They beat Miami Ohio, and Norhtern Illinois earlier in th eseason, but Northern Illinois played without their QB.  Their other 4 wins were against teams that were a combined 13-35, and they lost to a 4 win Akron team to close out the year.  The third string QB situation is giving us a bit of line value here in my opinion.  I think Pitt's pass rush could do enough to win this game, force some turnovers. Toledo's rushing attack is 115th in ypc, so they will rely heavily on the pass and Pitt's 13th ranked pass rush gives me the most confidence in this play along with the coaching advantage that Pitt has.