Iowa -2.5 2.2% play 

Iowa has the better offense here against a tougher strength of defenses.  Both teams want to run the ball, and Iowa also has a big edge there ranking 9th in ypc compared to 46th for Wisconsin.  Iowa's run defense 34th in ypc better than Wisconsin at 85.  Iowa also starting Brendan Sullivan at QB who gives them another running threat here vs. a suspect Wisconsin run defense.

Iowa's defensive weakness has been their pass defense, but I really don't think Wisconsin's QB can take advantage.  They rank 101st in QB rating, and 106th in turnovers per possession where Iowa has a huge edge here.  Iowa also has the edge on special teams, and third down offense/defense.  Iowa home at night  and I think they get the win here.