North Carolina -2.5 3.3% play
I like the Tarheels for the second week in a row after we picked up an easy victory as a road dog as they crushed Virginia off their bye. I look for them to continue that momentum on the road against a 1-7 Florida State team, a team that Mack Brown has gone 0-8 in his career against. This is a dreadful spot for Florida State here after they had their all in game against Miami last week, and now fall to 1-7, they won’t be going bowling and I don’t see how a team who has not gotten up for most of the year will be able to give it a max effort here, and I think the defense, which has carried them will have a bad game. I think their games against Notre Dame and Florida later this season may be more exciting to get up for.
North Carolina’s defense is good where it matters, ranking 28th in passing success rate defense, which is what Florida State likes to do the majority of the time, but this team has not eclipsed 300 yards all year. They rank 129th in ypp, 128th in QB rating 129th in ypc. They are 102nd in sack % allowed, which is a bad match up as North Carolina can get to the QB ranking 14th in sack rate. North Carolina’s offense also takes care of the ball ranking 19th in % of turnovers per possession so I don’t see anything fluky happening here.
