North Carolina +3.5 2.2% play

North Carolina comes in off the bye with a chance to regroup after 4 straight losses.  They have a good opporutnity to rebound here despite being a 3.5 point dog to Virginia.  The fact is Virginia is not really used to being a favorite in conference play, and I do not see the distinct advantage for them in this match up, while North Carolina on paper has faced a tougher schedule.  Both offenses are good, but NOrth Carolina has played an average opponent defense that is 20 spots better than Virginia.  Virginia’s offense has really struggled in the red zone scoring just 40% TD’s, which could be the difference here.  Both defenses are bad ranking 106th, and 96th in ypp, while North Carolina is worse their opponent offense are just a bit better, but this is a team that gave up 70 points to James Madison, but I think that’s a reason to see value on them at this point off the bye with lots to work on and revenge from blowing last year’s game against Virginia.