Michigan State +7 -125 3% play
Both teams play at a slow pace, and have solid defenses and offenses outside the top 50 in yards per play and success rate. I think this is a tough game for Iowa who is getting far too much credit for their win over Washington who really moved the ball well, but struggled in the red zone. Iowa got Washington at the right time off their upset of Michigan the week prior, the team they lost to in the National Championship. Iowa’s offense due to the running game has looked much better this year, but their defense has taken a big step back ranking outside the top 50 in YPP and success rate. They particularly have struggled in pass defense, which is what Michigan State likes to do under Jonathan Smith so far. I do have a lot of trust in Smith, and there were times in their game vs. Ohio State at home where they were moving the ball well. With two weeks off I think they could have a shot to pull the upset if they take care of the ball. That’s a big if at this point in time, but I think with Iowa’s one dimensional offense they should stay in this game. Michigan State ranks 50th in rushing ypc allowed 40th in rushing success rate, and they know what’s coming here.
