Washington STate -3.5 2.2% play 

I think we have value here on a team that has already beaten two teams that profile better than Fresno State when Washington State beat Washington and Texas Tech.  The throttling by Boise State before their bye is giving us line value here.  Fresno State really has not impressed me and I'm not a big Mikey Keene fan.  They rank 114th in % of possessions ending in a TO and Washington State is top 50 on the defensive side of that stat.  I also think Fresno will have issues with Washington State's QB Mateer who can run it well, and Fresno State gave up over 100 yards on just 12 carries to UNLV's QB, and against Michigan Orgi only ran it 5 times for 32 yards.  Fresno State's defense will have a rough time against a top 50 success rate offense, one that can run and pass and be explosive.