Virginia Tech +17.5 2.2% play

This is a classic buy low sell high situation on Friday night.  Miami comes firing into this game 4-0 with the Heisman Trophy favorite Cam Ward.  However, a deeper look and who have they really played? The road game at Florida does not look as impressive now with Florida really struggling and the win against South Florida was a bit misleading as South Florida lost their starting QB and the backup ARrchie had two turnovers.  Meanwhile Virginia Tech has already lost two games as a favorite.  Week 1 against Vanderbilt on the road looks better and better as Vanderbilt recently took top 10 Missouri to OT on the road, Rutgers is undefeated, and they beat an Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road. 

Miami's offense has looked great, but they have played an average opponent yard per play defense ranking 122nd.  Their average opponent yards per play differential is -3 yards per play.  Virginia Tech still has a top 50 pass defense, and a top 10 pass rush which could make this game different.  Virginia Tech likes to run the ball and shorten the game, 111th in second per play, and I just feel this amount of points is too much for a team that has all the confidence.  We have seen this story for Miami before before Cristobal and with him.