Washington +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
I think this line is disrespect for Washington, but also the PAC 12, which has proven that they were one of the better conferences this year, which hasn’t always been the case. The PAC 12 has always done well against the Big 10 for whatever reason, and actually Michigan is only 24-43 straight up vs. the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is 3-1 this year. It may be relevant, because Michigan just does not really face quality passing teams like Washington. They may face an efficient passing attack, but nobody that is as good as Washington nor throws as much as Washington.
The story line is that Washington has not faced a defense this good, and Michigan has not faced an offense this good, but the real story should be that Washington faced 6 top tier defenses and went 6-0, and scored 30+ points in 5 of those games. Michigan really only faced, Alabama, Ohio State, and neither team had an elite passing QB. Michigan’s average opponent offense ranks 90.58, compare that with Washington’s defense getting to face an average offense ranking 53rd.
Why is this number so large, and it comes down the the advance metrics, which has Washington’s overall numbers are not as good as Michigan, but there were games where Penix was hurt, and this team was not healthy. They were much healthier and really dominated Texas, a team that you could argue has a very similar defense to Michigan. I think Washington is really going to give Michigan’s defense issues, I think Michigan’s offense could control the game with their rushing attack, but I don’t trust McCarthy or Harbough as much as I trust Penix and Deboer. They have been in many tight games this season, and have found all kinds of ways to win games, including last week when they nearly choked away a victory. Penix faced Michigan when he was at Indiana and won the game without Deboer as his coach, and Deboer faced Michigan and lost without Penix so there is some familiarity here although not as relevant with different coaches. I think the referee assignment also will lead to a higher scoring game
