Ole Miss +4.5 2.2% play
Both teams are excited to be here, and have limited opt outs. Penn State had 6 players declar for the NFL draft that are traveling, but I question whether or not they will play a lot in this game. James Franklin the last two times he has faced the SEC in a bowl game has lost to teams they arguably should have beaten. In 2018 they were 4.5 point favorites over Kentucky in the bowl game they had a massive ypp differential edge over the regular season, but trailed 27-7 before making the final respectful losing 27-24. In 2021 season they were a 3.5 point dog to Arkansas, and lost 24-10. People don’t like hearing it, and it seems square to say, but the SEC is far better than the Big 10. They have backed it up going 66-35 in bowl games +5.6 points per game. After last night’s no show by Ohio State I don’t have any confidence in the Big Ten, and feel like the conference might have been down this season quite a bit despite the praise it has gotten.
Lets get to the match up, because both teams had similar seasons where they had a great season, but could not get past the top 2 teams in their conferences. Ole Miss losing to Alabama & Georgia, and Penn State losing to Ohio State and Michigan. Ole Miss gets to face an offense that has had its struggles this year ranking 73rd in ypp, and when they faced a non top 50 offense they went 6-0. Ole Miss has to face a top defense, but looking at the defense from Penn state their average opponent rushing ypc is 83rd, there average opponent ypp offense is 72. Ole Miss went 2-2 and put up 38 and 37 points, but struggled vs. Georgia and Alabama. We could see the same struggles here today, but it’s worth noting both Alabama and Georgia have top tier offenses something Penn State can not claim on a consistent basis.
Penn State are bullies. Their #s are inflated, their ATS numbers are inflated. James Franklin loves to lay it on late, and if there is an opportunity for him to cover this spread he will do it. Penn State going up against top offenses and there has only been 3 has gone 1-2, with their lone win coming against West Virginia before they were a top offense to open the season. To Me this should be a tight game throughout, and I think Ole Miss has a shot to win the game in the end. I think Ole Miss is clearly in the weight class of Penn State and these games have not gone well for Franklin in the past.
