West Virginia -6.5 2.2% play

Both these teams have similar overall numbers, but it is clear with all the opt outs, and there are a ton that North Carolina just does not care about this game.  West Virginia comes from the better conference, and has enjoyed their better season.  They rank 14th in ypc, and they go up against a team that ranks outside the top 70 in run defense. Teams that were outside the top 60 in run defense this year, West Virginia went 6-2.  West Virginia is also top 20 in limiting turnovers, and should control this game.