Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State 2% Guaranteed play

FREDDY WILLS RELEASED PICK - NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS. ARKANSAS STATE 2% GUARANTEED PLAY

Dec 23, 2023 12:01 PM Freddy Wills

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Northern Ill +3 2.2% play

97% of the money is on Arkansas State on side and money line. Nobody thinks Northern Illinois can win this game, and they are putting their faith in Arkansas State’s head coach Butch Jones? I just don’t understand it to be honest, and I’m happy o take the +3 with Northern Illinois as the Sun Belt Conference has not looked great this bowl season, which is the conference Arkansas State is from.

Northern Illinois has lost 7 straight bowl games, but they have an experienced QB leading the way behind a top 25 rushing attack. More importantly is Northern Illinois defense, which ranks 31st in ypp, but 10th in QB rating defense, and 14th in passing success rate defense. Arkansas State vs. top 50 pass defenses went 0-4 getting outscored 14, 10, 34, and 73, and throw in their loss to Troy who is a top 50 success rate defense, and they’re 0-5. Northern Illinois ranks 50th in success rate defense. I think Northern Illinois will be able to control this game as Arkansas State ranks 109th in defense ypc.

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