App St / Miami Ohio Under 43 1.1% Free Play
A few things dictating this total play for me. The #1 reason is the weather with 20mph gusts and rain in the forecast it's going to be difficult to see a ton of points here. Miami's offense has been struggling since losing Gabbert at QB, and now they also lose the backup in Aveon Smith who was a running threat as he enters the transfer portal. I really dont know how Miami Ohio is going to move the ball here they rank 128th in rushing succes srate, and while App State's defense hasn't been great, but they don't have to be here.
Miami Ohio is 130th in pace, and #3 in explosive defense. Their defense is one of the best App State has faced all year, and it will be even more challenging when there won't be as much of a threat to throw the ball with the weather. App State vs. good defenses scored 21, 20, 23 and 43 points this year and vs. slow paced teams they scored 20,19, and 24. I see App State scoring in that 17-24 point quadrant and as they are 7 point favorites we could see at max a 24-17 game, which goes under the total. Miami Ohio has an excellent punter.
