I'll take the Rajin Cajuns here as our POD catching 3 points on the road. First of all I think this team is better prepared for this game they got essentially a bye after their game against Boise STate as they had to play GA STate as a 17 point favorite at home and nearly lost, but again this is the same team that at home against LA Tech was a 16 point favorite and lose by 28. Public is down on them and so is Vegas yet they still have 18 returning starters compared with Texas State's 12 (4 on defense) and Texas State lost 24-48 and were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game. I will take the dog in that scenario especially when you look at the fact that Lafayette has played Boise and Ole MIss while Texas State has the weakest strength of schedule in the country.
Texas State has played nobody in the top 90 in rushing offense or defense so their numbers look pretty good on offense with a 5.60 ypc and a QB rating over 150, but a lot of the rushing yardage came against Idaho who is ranked 124th vs. the run. Texas State has only faced 2 teams who have a top 50 ranked rushing or passing offense (Illinois and Navy) and lost to both. At lease UL Lafayette can run the ball and even did so against Ole Miss. Terrance Broadway has had a terrible start, but he tossed 4 TD 0 INT in this match up last year and should have plenty of confidence coming into this game. At the end of the day I just think the wrong team is favored based on public perception.
I trust the Royals pitching at home. Wei Yen Chen looked like crap down the stretch for the third year in a row and in my opinion he's not used to throwing over 200+ innings which has caused ERA's over 5 in September in his career. The Royals will go with Jeremy Guthrie who has a very high pitching IQ and is used to throwing a lot of innings and can come up with the occasional gem. He's pitched to the ground ball and the Orioles will have issues hitting it out of this ball park. Teams that rely heavily on the HR in the playoffs typically struggle and the Royals arguably have one of the best bullpens in baseball backing Guthrie up. I expect the Royals to do all they can to get the 3-0 lead on the Orioles tonight.
