Boise State -2.5 3.3% play

It is very clear that the coaching change for Boise State made a dramatic difference, and I think it will continue here as Spencer Danielson is interviewing for the HC job, and it’s very evident the players love him.  Boise State lost 2 or 3 games that could have easily gone the other way, and I just feel like they are playing their best football right now.  UNLV has had a great season with a win or a loss they should be feeling good, but Boise State has faced the tougher schedule, and arguably has the better #’s although it’s pretty even.  This game is in Vegas, but Boise State is very much used to traveling here in the past and their fans travel extremely well.

Both teams come in with top 30 YPP offenses, and are primarily a run first team at roughly 58% of their plays being runs.  Boise is by far the better rushing team ranking 7th in rushing success rate, while UNLV ranks 99th.  Defensively against the run Boise 72nd, vs. UNLV who is 58th, but Boise has gone up against an average opponent run defense ranking 48th, while UNLV opponent coming in at 70.8.  I think Boise can control the run game and they have the best back in the game in Ashton Jeanty, while Taylon Green at QB also offers a rushing threat.  In conferenc eplay UNLV is only +.17 yards per carry, while Boise State is +1.88 ypc.  UNLV was outgained on the ground only 3x this season going 1-2, while their win against Air Force they had to come from behind as they trailed Air Force 24-7.