Iowa State +7.5 3.3% play 

Texas seems to be feeling the pressure of getting into the college football playoff in my opinion.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games by 7 points or less, and are expected to win by more than a TD on the road at night against an Iowa State team that has beaten the Longhorns in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Iowa State has a top 50 pass and run defense, which has given Texas issues this season where they are 0-2 ATS in Big 12 play losing outright to Oklahoma, and nearly to Kansas State.  They turned the ball over 6x in those two contests, and Iowa State ranks top 50 in both offensive and defensive TO % per possession.

I don’t trust Texas and Quin Ewers, and now he will be without his top RB Weapon Jonathan Brooks who was lost for the season a week ago.  I expect this to be a very tense close game, and I give the edge to Matt CAmpbell who is 12-4 ATS as a home dog at Iowa State.