New Mexico State +4.5 2.2% play

Jerry Kill and New Mexico State clearly not getting enough respect in the market.  They have a great match up here today as good running teams travel, and their 11th ranked rushing success rate offense goes up against Western Kentucky’s 127th rushing success defense.  Western Kentucky on the flip side love to pass the ball all over the yard, and rely on explosive plays, but New Mexico State’s defense ranks 42nd in explosive plays allowed, and the strength of their defense has been against the pass where they rank 54th in QB rating defense, and #60 in sack %.  I think they can come up with enough stops, take care of the ball to keep this game to a field goal or win the game on the road.  The last two teams with a top 50 rushing attack that Western Kentucky faced both beat Western Kentucky and rushed for 252 and 323 yards.