Texas Tech -2.5 2.2% play
I think we are getting some value here on Tech after their misleading two game stretch, and they are a desparate team sitting at 3-5. Meanwhile TCU not so motivated in my opinion after their season last year and the season slipping a way with the Big 12 Championship out of mind. TCU will start backup Josh Hoover who is not as good as Morris, not as mobile, and should allow the Tech defense, which is the strength of this team at home to play well enough to win. They held a 17-13 lead over this TCU team last year heading into the 4th quarter.
Offensively Tech has out gained their last two opponents despite having their third string QB in the game. They'll get back Behren Morton for this one and it shoudl be a huge bump. They'll also get this in a night game at home, and Tech has been so much better at home than they have on the road. TCU has been awful on the road this year, and the Big 12 as a hole have had home teams hitting at greater than 60% ATS. I think Tech wins big here with TCU turning teh ball over ranking 129th in OTO %, while Tech is 14th on the defensive side of that #. Tech also has 14th ranked special teams compared to TCU's 10th ranking.
