Kentucky +4.5 2.2% play
Tennessee played a great first half last week on the road against Alabama, and then got exposed 27-0 in the second half. Now they are back on the road where they are 0-2 in conference play to take on a Kentucky team play at home in the dog role at night, and off a bye. Kentucky has double revenge here after getting their doors blown off a season ago on the road and losing by only 3 the year before. Tennessee has struggled when they can’t run the ball, and Kentucky’s defense has been dominant against the run ranking 11th in success rate 12th in ypc. Where you attack Kentucky is passing the ball, and Joe Milton hasn’t proven that he can do that on a consistent basis it’s the reason they are 97th in turnover %.
Kentucky has had rough go on the offensive line that has gotten healthier during the bye, and they have been a little unlucky in the passing game with a 15% drop rate, which was something they apparently worked on quite a bit during the bye. I trust Mark Stoops especially as home dog where he is 6-0 ATS. Last year they gave up 44 points to Tennessee, but that was a far better offense and the first time Stoops saw what Heupel’s up tempo offense would bring. Now that there is a ton of tape on it teams are catching up, and we are seeing Tennessee struggle at times on offense, which was not something we saw a season ago. I think Kentucky is a live dog here
