Old Dominion +6.5 3.3% play
Both of these teams want to lean on the running game and play defense. Old Dominion is actually by far the better running offense and defense and they have faced the tougher schedule. Old Dominion when I average out their ypc rank and success rate running the ball with garbage time eliminated rank 50th against an average opponent defense ranking 64.58. App State ranks 54.5 vs. 67.7 so similar rushing offenses, but Old Dominion is at home in this game, which makes a difference. Run defense is the biggest discrepancy as App State ranks 121st against an average opponent offense ranking 68, when compared to Old Dominion ranking 27.5 vs. 63.25.
App State facing a top 50 run defense the last two seasons is only 2-4, with one win coming on a hail mary, and East Carolina this team, but App State benefited from being at home and forcing 3 turnovers in that game. Old Dominion coming off a bye here, and on the year holding opponents to 0.5 yard per play less than season average, while Old Dominion is allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponent average.
