Florida +8.5 / Louisville -1 2.2% teaser
Florida +8.5
Nobody wants Florida here after they lost on the road a combined 25-57, but Florida faced Kentucky and Utah, both those teams are top 10 rushing teams, and can play very good run defense as well. South Carolina ranks 120th in ypc defense, 104th in rushing success defense, and right now just aren’t a very good team ranking 89th in ypp on offense, 111th in ypp on defense. They do get an extra week of preparation here, but I think we are in for a competitive game either way.
Louisville -1
I don’t understand the love for Pitt, ranked 118th in ypp. Sure Louisville could have a hangover, but I think they ride the momentum here and get a big win on the road. Pittsburgh just is just not a good team right now, and Louisville should be able to win this game. Pitt is led by their defense, which ranks 23rd in ypp, but their average opponent offense ranks 80th, and they’ll go up against a Louisville offense that has been pretty balanced ranking 20th in rushing success rate, and 18th in passing success rate. Pitt has not forced turnovers ranking 109th in turnover % forced, and their defense ranks 100th in explosive plays allowed, which is the strength of Jeff Brohm’s offense ranking 12th in explosive plays.
Louisville’s defense in my opinion is actually the strength of this team and is getting overlooked here. They rank 24th at stopping the run, and their pass defense ranks 34th in passing success rate. I think Pitt is going to struggle moving the football in this game, and they are going to set Louisville up on some short fields as they rank 120th in offensive TO%, while Louisville's defense ranks 10th. Louisvilel found a way to win on the road against Georgia Tech and Pitt, both of those teams are better.
