Bowling Green +4.5 3.3% play

Buffalo is not a very good team this year.  They have faced a far weaker schedule compared to Bowling Green, and have played far worse at home than Bowling Green played on the road against their common opponent Liberty.  I think we are buying low on Bowling Green after their 27-0 loss a week ago to Miami Ohio, but they were clearly in a bit of a flat spot after upsetting a very good Georgia Tech team the week before.

Buffalo is -2 yards per play on the season against an opponent average of -0.16, while Bowling Green does not impress at -1.7 ypp it has come against an average opponent +1.28 ypp.  I think they shoudl be able to run the ball here as Buffalo ranks 130th in defensive ypc, and their should be opportunity for some explosive plays as they rank 25th in explosive offense comparedt o Buffalo who ranks 116th in explosive defense.  Overall this is a strenght of schedule play as Buffalo far worse on offense and defense and has played a far weaker schedule.  Thier average opponen ypp defense is 85.6 compared to Bowling Green's 35th, and their average opponent offense ranks 64th compared to Bowling Greens 37.6.