Alabama -130 3.5% play
Bama is still being punished for their loss to Texas and their struggles vs. South Florida, but honestly what has Texas AM proven so far? This is nearly a 3 TD line move from the past 4 years where the spread is 24, 18.5, 18, an17 to a pk, and now back up to 2, or 2.5 since limits increased. Alabama has more impressive SEC wins vs. Ole Miss and Miss State than the Aggies wins over Auburn and Arkansas. Both teams lost non-conference games they were favored in, but I’m pretty sure Texas would be favored over Miami on a neutral by a TD.
Nick Saban has also dominated his previous coaches and has beaten Jimbo Fisher the last 5 years. Nick Saban’s defense seems to be the strength of this year’s team and while the Aggies have been playing well offensively their is a lot of familiarity here with Max Johnson taking the start. In his two starts against Alabama he’s completed less than 50% of his passes for very little yards. Alabama’s run defense has been excellent too. They are much better on turnovers per possession on offense and defense ranking 18th, and 52nd to A&M who ranks 75th on offense and 119th at forcing turnovers. For an elite defense they sure don’t take the ball away. Alabama was right in that game against Texas thanks to QB Milroes accurate deep throws and explosive offense, and A&M ranks 119th in explosive plays allowed. Miami’s passing game lit them up, and I think Milroe will have an excellent game here.
