NC State +3.5 3.3% play

Everyone is drinking the kook aid for Louisville who has started 4-0 and will head on the road to face a solid NC State defense Friday night.  You’d be hard to find someone actually on NC State here tonight, but I think it’s a good spot when you factor in they have an extra day of prep and they don’t have to travel and they are a home dog.  Louisville coming off a great game where they lit up Boston College, and they have Notre Dame on deck, who they will host and it will be a sell out for the first time in 4 years.

Jeff Brohm has taken over Louisville and so far so good, but this is not the role I’m looking to back Brohm in as a favorite.  He was just 13-19 ATS as a favorite at Purdue, he was 12-4 ATS as a dog.  NC State value is real as they are 0-4 ATS so far.  I think Brennan Armstrong who was reunited with his old OC Robert Annae may have a chance to have a good game.  They have had 2 road games and Notre Dame at home, while Louisville only had one game on the road against Georgia Tech, a game they trailed 28-13 at the half and should have lost.  NC State by far has faced the tougher schedule as their average opponent ypp differential is +0.23 compared to Louisville -1.03.  

Louisville ranks 101st in ypp defense, 111th in defensive sack %, and 84th in 3rd down defense yet they are a road favorite. I’m not buying it.  I expect a tight game, but NC State is poised for their best showing of the season.  They trailed Notre Dame at home by only 7 points entering the 4th quarter.  Armstrong ended up throwing 3 INT.  NC State has only 1 TO in their other 3 games.  I think NC State’s defensive line at home will be the difference.  They rank 28th in sack %, and Louisville has yet to face a defense that can get after the QB.