Western Kentucky +4 2.2% / Western Kentucky +160 1%
Western Kentucky has a defensive player opting out of the portal coming back to play, and their star QB Austin Reed opting out of transfer portal and coming back to play so this game clearly matters to Western Kentucky is the way I’m taking it. C-USA has not done great vs. the Sun Belt, but South Alabama has never won a bowl game, and we saw this style offense from Western Kentucky put 59 points up on Sun Belt App State team last year that ranked 17th in ypp. Western Kentucky will be without a couple OL, but they run this hurry up that should even things out for the defensive line. South Alabama’s defense that was elite only played an average of 80th ranked ypp, the 3 offenses they faced that were similar put up 31, 32, and then Old Dominion who is a pass first team that runs tempo put up 20. South Alabama also has to go up against a top defense as Western Kentucky’s defense is very under rated ranking 36th in ypp. South Alabama just 6, 27, and 20 points against top 50 ypp defenses.
These two have a common opponent in Troy at home. South Alabama was 3 point favorite, while Western Kentucky was -5.5. Both teams lost but Western Kentucky put up 27 points, and were +55 yards +0.1 ypp, while South Alabama was -0.5ypp and -20 yards. Western Kentucky’s offense the past two years has had no problems putting up points against top defenses. I mentioned Troy this year, and App State last year, but they scored 53 on Marshall last year as well as 48 on a very good MTSU defense a season ago. I have these two teams very even, and the oddsmakers actually had Western Kentucky -2.5 on a neutral looking at the Troy spread so there is no way I can get to +4 here. I still have Western Kentucky as the better team they had a better ypp against tougher competition.
