Florida +9.5 1.1% Free Play

Everyone is aware of Florida’s players missing including their QB, and everyone is aware of how bad their run defense has been in games, and how good Oregon State has been.  Florida will be without 20 scholarship players in this game, but that is all incorporated into this line in my opinion.  I just find it very hard to go against Bill Napier as a dog.  He’s 16-3-1 ATS as a dog as a head coach, 5-0 ATS this season.  You can argue that Florida still has the more talented roster, but more importantly how is Oregon State preparing for the Gators?  Jack Miller makes the start at QB, he’s a 4* transfer from Ohio State big arm, but pocket QB not running like Anthony Richardson.  This offense and formations will look different, and I think Oregon State inability to prepare for that will help Florida.  Florida still should have success running the ball here as Oregon State ranks 106th in epa run defense.  Both teams play slow, and I expect Florida to even play slower with their roster in this game.  Lastly, both of these teams played Utah this year, while Florida upset them at home Oregon State got crushed 16-42 on the road, and the PAC 12 is 0-3 SU + ATS this year vs. the sec.

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