Miss State +110 3% play
I think the time is finally right for Mike Leach to win the Egg Bowl. I think the biggest problem for this team this year has been the drops from the WR, and when you throw it 70% that’s a big deal, but if they are ever going to have a good game where they’re going to sacrifice their bodies or man up and catch with their hands I would think it would be in this rivalry game. For Ole Miss, I don’t know where their heads are at. We faded them last week against Arkansas, because they just lost their dreams of getting to the SEC Championship the week before and it was an Arkansas blow out. It’s questionable that they can bounce back from that, but now there are rumors of Lane Kiffin heading to Auburn. Regardless if Kiffin denies it to his players it’s something that has to be factored in here and the only way to factor it in is a negative for Ole Miss.
Last year Miss State outgained Ole Miss 420 to 388 but lost the game 31-21, because they failed in the red zone going 2-6. Last year’s team was +3% in red zone differential and this year’s team is much better at +22%. Ole Miss defense while it’s gotten better has struggled more in the red zone vs. last year. Ole Miss strength on paper is vs. the pass, but against the 4 top 50 passing offenses they went 1-3, and their lone win against Kentucky should have been a loss. Kentucky had two fumbles in Ole Miss territory, and really should have won that game. Miss State also should have advntages here on first down as Ole Miss ranks 91st in first down defense, which will help the momentum for this offense.
Miss State also enjoys big edge on special teams something they did not have last year as they rank 6th compared to Miss State 78th ranking. Ole Miss also has a turnover issue ranking 104th in % of possessions ending in a TO. Ole Miss loves to run the ball 60%+ time, and they’re very good at doing it, but even though Miss State’s run defense has struggled they’ve come up with wins against top rushing offense beating Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Auburn, while losing to LSU and Alabama a pair of top 10 teams is nothing to be upset about. At the end of the day these are two teams very similar. Miss State played the tougher schedule with Georgia/Kentucky in their cross over games, while Ole Miss had Vanderbilt/Kentucky.
