Tulsa +7 2.2% play / Tulsa +220 0.2% bonus

I think Tulsa is the more desperate team for a win, and there is nothing special about this Memphis team.  We backed Memphis last week against UCF and it was a great match up for their pass first scheme, but there were multiple coaching decision in that game that not only cost Memphis the game, but the cover.  Tulsa’s head coach Phillip Montgomery in my opinion is the better head coach and I think he’ll have his team ready to make a run for a bowl game much like last year when they won 3 straight to get to a bowl.  Montgomery is 22-8 ATS at Tulsa as an away dog, and over the last 3 years he is 15-7 ATS vs. conference opponents, 11-4 ATS off a straight loss.  Meanwhile Memphis under Ryan Silverfield just 3-10 ATS as a home favorite at Memphis, 6-15 ATS vs. conference, and 5-7 ATS following a loss.

The match up really comes down to Davis Brin playing.  He injured his non-throwing shoulder, but has been practicing with so much on the line I would be a little surprised to see him not play, but that will just mean the rest of the team steps up.  Montgomery, “We have to scratch and claw and find a way to win.”  This team has not given up they have confidence form last year.  I think the offense has success whomever is out there at QB as Memphis is 101^st in epa pass defense, 119^th in sack %, which should allow the young Tulsa offensive line to have more success.  Tulsa’s defensive strength is vs. the pass, which is what Memphis wants to do, and I highly doubt they’ll run the ball here more tonight.  Take out sacks, and their QB Hennigan is their leading rusher.  They played a very physical game against UCF last week.

Tulsa also the team that takes care of the ball better.  Memphis ranks 118^th in % of possessions ending in a TO, while Tulsa ranks 2^nd.  Tulsa also has an edge in red zone TD percentage and I feel like 7 points is just too much for a team that is very motivated.  I think the short week benefits the better coach and that coach is Montgomery.