Memphis +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
Memphis off the bye and Cincinnati in a huge sandwich spot after their huge victory over Cincinnati in what was a very physical game. I felt Cinci’s game plan lacked a bit on offense and they should have thrown the ball to attack the weakness of UCF’s defense, which is their pass coverage. UCF has Tulane the top ranked team in the AAC up next. I think Memphis, a team with a very good passing game will be able to do that this week. Memphis also a very good home team. They lost back to back on the road to Tulane and East Carolina. They had a 17-0 lead against East Carolina, and lost in OT, the same team that beat UCF 35-13. Against Tulane they were -4 TO margin and gave up a 90 yard punt return.
Aside from the spot that favors Memphis here. I actually like their match up as they are very similar to East Carolina. A pass first offense with a very good QB, and a defensive strength against the run. Memphis 28th in ypc defense, 27th in epa. They also have a top 30 special teams unit just like East Carolina. UCF could be without Plumlee in this game although I personally hope he starts coming off the concussion I don’t think he’ll be 100%, and I’ve said it before he’s a one dimensional QB, and Memphis has shown they can stop the run. They’ll also have revenge on their mind after losing 24-7 on the road last year. They played that game without Seth Henigan, and had 4 turnovers. UCF’s defense ranks 128th in forcing turnovers this season. Memphis has been a very good team at home dating back to last year playing in a lot of tight games. I think this one goes down to the wire.
