Georgia Tech + 3.5 3.3%
Georgia Tech has faced the far tougher schedule with Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF in their non-conference compared to Virginia Tech’s Old Dominion, and West Virginia. All 7 of Georgia Tech’s opponents are + in yards per play differential for an average +0.91, while Virginia Tech’s opponents are on average -.31. With that said the statistical profile is not that different and I think Georgia Tech missing Jeff Simms in some games has been a big deal. Simms was a full participant at practice and will play in this game and will be a huge difference maker as a mobile QB. Virginia Tech has not faced a mobile QB all year long. Simms had 60 rushing yards a season ago in this game.
Blacksburg’s home field advantage when it’s not a night game is bit less. This team also already has lost to West Virginia at home (not a good road team) by 23 points, and Miami. They beat Boston College 27-10, but BC just got beat by Uconn last week and has been having a dreadful season. Georgia Tech has beaten two decent teams in Duke and Pitt and if Simms played against Virginia they likely would have beaten them.
Georgia Tech has the better defense in my opinion due to strength of schedule, and their EPA #’s back that up. Taking garbage time out Georgia Tech’s EPA pass defense ranks 27th, and their EPA run defense ranks 31st, while Virginia Tech ranks 63rd and 65th, and both have come against worse strength of schedule. Virginia Tech is 0-3 the last 2 years when facing a team with a top 50 epa pass defense and epa run defense, and if a team has a top epa pass or epa run defense they have gone 2-10. Georgia Tech has also taken better care of the ball ranking 6th in offensive turnover %, and their defense ranks 11th, while Virginia Tech ranks 66th and 120th. With rain in the forecast and what looks like a defensive battle turnovers are going to play a key role. The dog is 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings.
