Cinci +2 3.3% play

Gus Malzahn needs the running game for his offense to work.  It’s been no different at UCF where he’s just 1-5 vs. teams with a top 60 run defense.  UCF has an interesting dynamic at QB with Plumlee, but he’s a one dimensional player and it’s something a quality defensive minded coach like Fickel can scheme for.  Plumlee as a starter dating back to his 2019 season at Ole Miss is 0-8 vs. a top 60 run defense, and has just 4 passing TD’s to 7 interceptions.  Cincinnati definitely falls into that bucket as they rank 5^th in defensive ypc, and while they have not been as dominant as last year I expect them to continue to get better. 

Luke Fickel as an away dog is 9-4 ATS.  UCF relies heavily on explosive plays and Cinci’s defense is 10^th in 20+ yard play percentage.  I faded Cinci last week, but that was due to the fact that the weakness on this defense is the secondary, and SMU was a capable passing team, and we were very lucky to come away with a cover despite the wind as we got a back door cover late.  This week I’ll be backing Cincinnati as a dog as I don’t think UCF is as good as they are getting credit for here.