Cinci +2 3.3% play
Gus Malzahn needs the running game for his offense to work. It’s been no different at UCF where he’s just 1-5 vs. teams with a top 60 run defense. UCF has an interesting dynamic at QB with Plumlee, but he’s a one dimensional player and it’s something a quality defensive minded coach like Fickel can scheme for. Plumlee as a starter dating back to his 2019 season at Ole Miss is 0-8 vs. a top 60 run defense, and has just 4 passing TD’s to 7 interceptions. Cincinnati definitely falls into that bucket as they rank 5th in defensive ypc, and while they have not been as dominant as last year I expect them to continue to get better.
Luke Fickel as an away dog is 9-4 ATS. UCF relies heavily on explosive plays and Cinci’s defense is 10th in 20+ yard play percentage. I faded Cinci last week, but that was due to the fact that the weakness on this defense is the secondary, and SMU was a capable passing team, and we were very lucky to come away with a cover despite the wind as we got a back door cover late. This week I’ll be backing Cincinnati as a dog as I don’t think UCF is as good as they are getting credit for here.
