Pitt +3 5.5% NCAAF POD
I have to put last week’s Pitt game behind me as it was our top play, and it’s usually a little difficult for me to get back to the window after a team burned me like Pitt did coming with 4 to’s at Louisville in my biggest play of the week, but not getting to the window the next week is a little square so here we are in a match up I like even more. 23-13 ATS, is Pat Narduzzi’s record following a SU loss. For all the shit this guy gets he is a very solid coach.
North Carolina’s offense is sizzling, but the last time you want a team to go on a bye is when the offense and team is clicking, and that’s what we have here for Mac Brown’s Tarheels. Mac Brown took over in 2019, and he’s 0-4 after the bye losing to Notre Dame the last two years, Virginia Tech and Pitt in 2019. This offense really has not faced a good defense all year with the exception of Notre Dame, a game they put up a lot of garbage stats. Notre Dame absolutely dominated that game, and the Irish have a very similar profile to Pittsburg in the fact that they want to run the ball, they want to play defense, and they rely on their QB to manage the game. North Carolina since Brown took over when facing a top 50 ypp defense is only 2-9! Their two wins came back in 2019, and were by only 3 points each against Miami and Duke. Pitt at 4-3 still has everything to play for.
Pitt’s offensive troubles were two-fold last week at Louisville. They could not protect their QB, and they really couldn’t get consistency and flow in their running game. Despite running for more than 150 yards the team was just 4-11 on third down and had the 4 TO’s that cost them. I don’t see the same thing happening here as they are facing a North Carolina defense that ranks 114th, in yards per play. They rank 118th vs. the run, 116th vs. the pass, and have not show an ability to get pressure ranking 111th in sack %, 92nd in third down defense, and 112th in success rate. Pitt is 2-0 when facing a bad defense this year, and 19-4 since 2018 when facing a non top 75 defense. 3 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points. This team under Narduzzi just thrives in this type of a match up.
