Pittsburgh +2.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
Malik Cunningham is cleared for this game for Louisville and that’s a good thing here. He hasn’t played in 3 weeks since suffering a concussion and Louisville off a bye. I always feel like QB’s struggle the first week coming back after a concussion. I feel like they aren’t necessarily 100%, and then they have to process so much information so quickly. Cunningham does not do well with that normally, and here he goes against top 25 pass rush that also is a top 20 pass defense overall and decent enough against the run to give them issues. Pitt is 15th in havoc rate, and Cunningham grades out very poorly according to PFF vs. pressure 33.5, and it’s really not optimal to face it in this situation. I looked further back and Louisville is 7-16 overall when facing a top 50 pass rush with Cunningham as the starter with two of those wins vs. group of 5 team.
Personally, I think we are getting some value, because Pitt lost to Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago, but they rebounded nicely to beat Virginia Tech. In that game they had 3 turnovers in the second half. I think they take better care of the football here and Louisville actually is worse ranking 93rd in % of possessions ending in TO’s while Pitt ranks 57th. Pitt, a much more balanced offense than previous years makes them more difficult to prepare for, and they played extremely well on the road a season ago, and are also off the bye. Narduzzi the last few seasons with extra prep is 8-0 straight up, meanwhile Louisville just 2-4 the last two seasons with 10+ days to prepare and that includes some large losses by 19, 14, and 21 points. Coaching advantage here for Pitt in my opinion.
Match up wise Pitt also has the advantage as they are both run first teams. Pitt ranks 56th in epa vs. an average opponent ranking 53.2, while Louisville ranks 72nd vs. 66. Pitt’s defense ranks 43rd, while Louisville’s ranks 70th. Pitt also more of a threat in the passing game as Pitt’s pass defense is top 20. Louisville’s pass defense ranks 88th in qb rating despite having 2nd best pass rush, which is not a great sign heading into this game. Pitt’s other loss, was only only to Tennessee the #3 team in the nation, and nobody played Tennessee better this year than Pitt.
