Liberty +7 3.3% play
I understand Liberty has not faced a tough schedule with an opponent YPP differential of -0.58, but BYU’s opponent YPP differential is -0.34, and they both put up +1ypp. BYU just went back to back against Notre Dame and Arkansas and got their buts kicked. They got their buts kicked against Oregon as well. The schedule is obviously tougher than what Liberty has done, but Liberty is at home here getting a TD, and Hugh Freeze is 9-3 ATS as a home dog, 26-11 ATS as a dog overall, and is a hell of a coach.
Liberty also top 50 defense, and they have shown they can stop the run and the pass, and put pressure on the QB. They rank 4th ins ack %, 5th in success rate defense, and are top 25 in epa run defense and epa pass defense. BYU’s defense is showing major holes ranking 123rd in success rate defense. Liberty may get some help this week at QB with the return of Charlie Brewer, but it’s their running game that I’m banking on keeping them in this game. They rank 45th in epa run offense and go up against BYU who ranks 98th in epa run defense. BYU’s defense has also struggled vs. the pass, and I honestly don’t know if BYU has anything left at this point after going back to back game against Notre Dame and Arkansas. I see a game that goes down to the wire, because of Liberty’s defense.
