Texas Tech +9.5 3.3% play
There is a huge discrepancy in strength of schedule here as Oklahoma State has faced an average oppy pp differential of -0.46, and Texas Tech has faced +0.675. Tech has proven they can be competitive in these games and have been tested this season. Oklahoma State has not been tested and are already showing some huge signs of weaknesses as their defense ranks 100th in ypp, and that comes against an average 77th ranked offense. Texas Tech is a pass first team, and that’s the weakness of this Oklahoma State team that ranks 111th in pass defense, 124th in epa pass defense.
Texas Tech if you can believe it is actually the better defense. They rank 98th in ypp defense, but it has come against an average 56th ranked offense. Oklahoma State also in a major let down spot after avenging their loss against Baylor in the Big 12 Title game and they have top 20 ranked TCU on deck Both of these teams like to play fast and a back door is definitely not out of the question as Donnovan Smith should pass for over 300 yards.
