Troy +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD
Western Kentucky looks like it has not missed a beat, but look at the strength of schedule here as they have faced an opponent ypp differential of -2.8ypp. To put it simply the average defense ypp is 105th, and average ypp offense is 116. This is a team that had to replace their QB, OC, top WR, and only returned 11 starters. There are going to be some growing pains and I think it shows up here against a very tough Troy team that already has proven they can win on the road as was the case at App State where it took a miracle on game day for them to lose.
Troy matches up well here, because of the defensive line, which is the best in the Sun Belt. They ranked 3rd in sack %, but unlike Western Kentucky, Troy has faced a very tough schedule to start with road games at Ole Miss and App State, and then a very impressive home win last week against Marshall. They go back on the road to face Western Kentucky, and I think they’ll be in position to win this game. Western Kentucky’s offense despite facing poor defenses have only converted 34.48% of their plays. Western Kentucky relying heavily on big plays. They were #1 in 20+ yard plays a season ago. Troy was 33rd allowing 20+ plays last season and is top 20 this season despite playing
Western Kentucky has to be feeling good about themselves right now, but they have a monster game on deck. They’ll face UTSA the team they lost to twice last year including the C-USA Championship. Troy coming from the Sun Belt is the clear better conference and Western Kentucky just 2-6 ATS their last 8 vs. Sun Belt.
