Florida +10.5 2.2% play
Tennessee has never been a favorite by more than 7 points agaisnt Florida, and this surely puts a lot of pressure on this Tennessee team that I still have a lot of questions about. This is a nice spot to back the Gators after back to back strugles, and I think we are at least getting a field goal of value here for Florida’s struggles vs. South Florida last week, which was the ultimate flat spot as they opened the season agaisnt two top 25 teams, and had Tennessee on deck. However, I trust Billy Napier, as he’s 11-3-1 ATS as a dog, 8-3-1 ATS on the road, and I still think Florida has an advantage in this game, and it’s their running game.
Tennessee has struggled mightly vs. mobile QB’s,a dn despite ranking 19th in the young season they have played an average opponent ranking 96th in rushing ypc, and here they’ll face Florida who ranks 4th, and 12th in epa rush offense. Tennessee to mobile QB’s last year went 1-2 giving up 195 yards to Matt Corral, 47 and 2 TD to Will Levis in a 3 point win, and 144 to Florida’s Emory Jones. I look for Anthony Richardson to shine, but he doesn’t have to do it himself Montrell Johnson, and Trevor Etiene have looked the part early, and I think Florida will be able to run the ball here, which should keep this game close.
Tennessee’s offense has been great, but this is an obvious step up in competition, and while they are a run first team they do have to go against a good pass defense in Florida and I expect Florida to come up with some stops. This is just too big of a line move and too much value here on Florida for me to pass up given their dominance in this series, and Tennessee’s struggles stopping mobile QB’s.
