Michigan State +3 3.3% play
This is an over reaction in my opinion, this line opened Michigan State -3.5, and is now at +3, and I understand there are some inuries on Michigan State side, but they are questionable for the game. This is a great opportunity for Michigan State to bounce back at home. I love that Mel Tucker is taking accountability for the dreadful coaching last week, which we benefited from as we had Washington -3 in that game, but the secondary which continues to be an issue should not be the problem this week as Minnesota runs the ball 70% of the time. Michigan State’s defensive strength is their run defense as they rank top 20 this year in ypc and epa, and last year they were top 20 as well. Minnesota under Fleck has always been a run first offense and when facing a top 50 run defense they are just 6-9 since 2018, and 2 of those wins came against Fresno State.
Minnesota’s #’s look great, but they have come against on average 104th ranked opponent ypp defense, and 113th opponent ranked offense + an FCS opponent. This is a huge step up for Minnesota who is without their best down the field play maker in Chris Autman-Bell lost for the season. Michigan State has injury concerns as well, but I’m banking on at least 1 or 2 of those guys coming back this week, and if they don’t I still feel good with how QB payton Thorne played in the second half on the road without his top target he looked like a difference maker. Michigan State is the more balanced team they are significantly better on special teams ranking 21st to Minnesota’s 106th ranking, and they are better at limiting the turnovers ranking 1st in percentage of drives ending in a TO. I think this is just a favorable match up for Sparty here, and they had a top 50 offense last year, so far Sparty ranks 32nd in ypp albeit against bad competition, but we saw them move the ball well last week in the second half vs. Washington without a running game. Minnesota just 7-8 the last 4 seasons vs. a top 50 ypp offense. I think Mel Tucker’s players really like him and they’ll fight for him in this hoem game as a dog.
